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Crystal Palace vs Man United

Sat 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win: 20.9%

Draw: 22.6%

Man United win: 56.5%

Predicted: Man United

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 63.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.11

More corners: Man United (43.5% home / 56.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Man United

Yes

Probability Man United wins or draws: 80.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Man United Clearest lean of the available outcomes (56% vs next-best 23%). (56.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Man United win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (81.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.